Why a Blog?

Those of you who have found your way here will have a fair idea about what's happening. About a year ago, I was asked by some friends if I'd consider helping start a hedge fund. My reaction was perhaps as you'd expect: my entire background was economic research, so I wasn't qualified to start a hedge fund - nevertheless, I'd try to put together a team that might be useful, and then probably drop out and leave them to it.

If you want to give God a laugh, tell him your plans. The 'useful team' turned out to be people for whom I have great respect, who I love working with. So gradually, the work on the hedge fund has grown from a mild interest, to a serious proposition, to a passion which is subsuming my analytical work, to a full-time occupation on many fronts.

In the circumstances, I cannot honestly say I can give my full attention both to Coldwater's clients and to the fund. But at the same time, my love of economic ideas and the exchange of them, is undimmed, the excitement of following the world's economic story remains utterly unquenched. It just is part of me now that an interesting piece of analysis is made to be shared. Take this morning, for example. China's inflation data for February arrives and shows . . . . that we're at a downward inflection point! How exciting is that? And then we get China's retail sales data which also shows. . . . a downward inflection point! How does that alter our understanding of China's cycle and policy, and, on reflection, our understanding of the potential near-term momentum in the US? Once these sorts of issues grab you, it's difficult not to share it.

So here's the blog. For those of you who used to support me financially - I'm sorry you're not paying, but I hope you find the content interesting. For those of you who never did . . . . well, the marginal cost of a new blog reader is zero anyway.

And so on with the music.

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