Monday, 11 March 2013

Shocks & Surprises Weekly FX Observations

It was a relatively muted week in fx markets, with no new trends established, and no existing trends challenged.  Rather, the dollar simply took a breather.  Please check previous weeks' posts for the relevant caveat: remember, there are no consistently reliable ways to forecast short-term currency movements, and these observations have no pretensions they have solved that problem.

Strengthening Trends
US Dollar: The dollar was steady on the week, but the strengthening trend in place since early Jan is not under challenge. The currency remains at its strongest since July 2010.
Rmb: The very gentle strengthening trend established in early October 2012 remains in place and has not yet morphed into stability against the dollar. But it is moving that way.

Weakening Trends
Euro: The weakening trend established during the previous week was neither strengthened nor challenged by this week's stability. But the current ceiling of around 1.31 is unchanged on the week.
Sterling: The weakening trend is unrelenting, and was not relieved in any way during the week.  The ceiling has now come down to 1.58 to the dollar.
Yen: The weakening trend in place since mid-December stalled during the last week, but is not under threat. The current ceiling continues to come down, and now stands at 87.1
A$: The new weakening trend was established in early Feb, and is not under threat: the current ceiling is around 0.961.
Turkish Lira:  Weakening trend in place since late Feb is not challenged: the current ceiling remains unchanged on the week at 1.782.
Gold: A steady week for gold, but it does not imply a challenge to the weakening trend in place since the beginning of the year. The ceiling continues to drop quickly, and now stands at 1,671 an oz.
Commodities CRB Index:  The current weakening trend is now entering its fifth month, unchallenged. The ceiling of 296 is unchanged on the week.

No comments:

Post a Comment