Shocks & Surprises Weekly FX Observations

Usual caveats apply: the purpose of these pieces is merely to identify trends, measure them and understand when they are under threat. In my view, going the one step further, and forecasting currency values is impossible - the best brains constantly try, and constantly fail.  Still, here are the observable trends:
Trend Breaks / New Trends / On Watch
Rmb: The strengthening trend which has been in place since early Oct 2012 is now very gentle indeed, and perhaps morphing into stability vs the dollar.

Strengthening Trends
US Dollar:  The strengthening trend which has been in place since early January is still gathering momentum. Against the SDR index, the dollar is not at its strongest point since July 2012.
Euro: The strengthening trend has been in place since mid-Sept and is possibly now accelerating. The current floor is around 1.31 to the dollar.
Turkish Lira:  The strengthening trend has been in place since mid-Sept 2013, and is not under challenge. The likely floor has come down to 1.78.

Weakening Trends

Sterling:  The weakening which emerged in mid-Jan is still strongly in place, and still possibly accelerating.  We're unlikely to see 1.60 to the dollar again any time soon.

Yen: No threat to the weakening trend that has been in place since mid-Dec. The ceiling of 84.5 continues to come down rapidly.

Australian Dollar: We identified a new weakening trend last week, and this has been confirmed this week. It seems unlikely it will climb back to 0.96 any time soon.

Gold: The weakening trend which made its first appearance in early November 2012 is gathering pace. Ceiling of 1694 is coming down rapidly.

Commodities: Our belief that the CRB Index had a downward inflection in late November 2012 has been painful. However, it now seems justified, with the Index retreating to around 298, which I would regard as its current ceiling.