Wednesday 30 March 2011

Fukushima and the Evolution of Ignorance

How much non-information about Fukushima can one absorb? Less, clearly, than is available. So here's perhaps the wisest observation I've heard about it - made by Bill Durodie of the Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University:
The closer the situation comes to being resolved at Fukushima, the clearer it will become what actually happened there. Hence it will sound like matters are getting worse just as they are getting better.
There's an echo there of the chap i/c the Three Mile Island meltdown, who observed that they only really found out what had happened five years after it was over, since that was how long it took to really have a look at what was left of the core.

But it's also another example of what's been called 'the evolution of ignorance' - the effect by which maps of 'unknown Africa' started going blank in the 18th century, as we came to realize that although we didn't know what was there, we were becoming more and more persuaded that Africa wasn't really peopled by dragons and anthropophagi.

How will the evolution of ignorance about Fukushima affect pricing of Japanese financial assets?

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